Overview of domestic mobile phone shipments for FY 2014
■ The total shipment in the FY 2014 is 37,880,000 units, down by 3.9% compared with the previous FY.
■ The shipment of smartphones is 27,480,000 units, down by 7.2% compared with the previous FY.
■ The shipment of feature phones is 10,400,000 units, up by 6.0% compared with the previous FY.
■ The total shipment in the FY 2015 is forecasted to be 38,100,000 units, including the shipment of 28,600,000 smartphones.
MM Research Institute 【MMRI as follows】 (Tokyo, Minato-ku, president, Hiroshi Nakajima) published research results of domestic mobile-phone shipments for FY 2014 (from April, 2014 to March, 2015). The total shipment (total of conventional cell-phones 【 feature phones as follows 】 and smartphones) became 37,880,000 units, down by 3.9% compared with the previous FY and decreased for 3 consecutive years.
The shipment of smartphones decreased for 2 consecutive years. The shipment of feature phones exceeded the previous FY for the first time in the past seven years
The shipment of smartphones was 27,480,000 units (down by 7.2% compared with the previous FY) and decreased for 2 consecutive years after FY 2012 when the shipment of 29,720,000 units was the peak. The shipment of smartphones ratio among the total shipment became 72.5% (2.6 points decrease compared with the previous FY). The shipment of feature phones became 10,400,000 units (up by 6.0% compared with the previous FY), and the shipment ratio among the total shipment became 27.5% (2.6 points increase compared with the previous FY). The shipment of feature phones exceeded the previous FY for the first time in the past seven years since FY 2007, and after FY 2008 when the shipment of smartphones exceeded 1 million units a year.
MMRI analyzed that there are three reasons why feature phones attract strong support.
①Monthly basic fee for use of the smartphone is expensive for feature phone users.
②Feature phones provide functionality considered necessary by their users.
③The ratio of users who bought a smartphone to replace a feature phone increased.
MMRI analyzed that there are two reasons why the shipment of smartphones decreased.
①The migration pace slowed from feature phones to smartphones.
②The functions and performance of smartphones reached the standard which satisfies most users. In other words, the need to purchase upgrade replacements decreased.
These are due to the result that, in a lifestyle and a consumption action, users reviewed the idea how much to expense for the mobile-phone, and they began to interest in what services the use of a smartphone may provide rather than the smartphone itself.
Apple Inc. is in first place in FY 2014 for both the total shipment of mobile phones and the shipment of smartphones.
Top share of shipments by makers in FY 2014 was Apple Inc. with 15,410,000 units (up by 6.8% compared with the previous FY). They have recorded first place consecutively for the three years since FY 2012. The share among the total shipment of mobile-phones became 40.7%, and the share of smartphone shipment became 56.1%.
NTT DOCOMO started sales of iPhones in September, 2013, and so FY 2014 was the first FY when the three major carriers sold the device through one year in 2014. Therefore it may be said that the share expansion of Apple Inc. is proper, but it remained in slight increase.
Second to fifth share among the total shipment became the same order as the previous FY. The second place was Sharp, third place was Sony Mobile Communications【Sony Mobile as follows】, fourth place was Kyosera, and the fifth place was Fujitsu.
The second place of the smartphone shipment was Sony Mobile like the previous FY, the third place was also Sharp like the previous FY. The fourth place was Kyocera, and fifth place was Samsung.
The total shipment in the FY 2015 is forecasted to be 38,500,000 units, and the shipment of smartphones to be 29,000,000 units.
MMRI forecasts that the total shipment in the FY 2015 is 38,100,000 units up by 0.6% compared with the previous FY. After that, 39,700,000 in the FY 2016, 38,000,000 in the FY 2017, and 37,600,000 in the FY 2017.
The shipment of smartphones in the FY 2015 is forecasted to be 28,600,000 units up by 4.1% compared with the previous FY (the shipment ratio of smartphones is 75.1%)
After that, FY 2016 to be 30,800,000 (77.6%), FY 2017 to be 30,000,000 (78.9%), FY 2018 to be 30,200,000 (80.3%).
The revision of the SIM lock cancellation regulation brought the review of the sales measure of overemphasizing iPhones
The points to control a shipment scale after FY 2015 include rise of ① SIM lock cancellation ② SIM-free device (bargain smartphone) /MVNO SIM (bargain SIM). As for the SIM lock cancellation, a new regulation started in May, 2015 based on the guideline revision from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. However, points to be improved are that SIM lock cancellation is not applicable after the purchase for half a year and that a condition which will spoil the convenience of the user who wants to carry out SIM lock cancellation soundly exists.
In addition, it can be analyzed that the SIM lock cancellation has a negative effect for iPhones whose volume and share expansion continues. iPhone has the biggest gap of delivery prices from Apple Inc. to carriers and the device purchased price (the amount of real payment assuming the two years contract) by the user, therefore a carrier bears for the difference. iPhones where the three carriers are hard pressed to give each original characteristics is the leading device of the MNP (number portability) system, and concerns about outflow risks to other carriers or MVNO due to the increase of SIM lock cancellation, this is because the possibility that carriers will change the sales measure of overemphasizing iPhones is assumed.
Among 37,880,000 shipment in the FY 2014 in this release, only shipment for 4 carriers of NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, the SoftBank Y mobile from makers is included and the shipment of SIM-free device (the original sale by makers and MVNO shipment device except 4 carriers) is not included.
The competition intensification between the 4 major carriers and MVNO are inevitable, and a mobile-phone device market including SIM-free devices is going to reach a turning point in future.
MM Research Institute
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